virtual (virtual) future
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Virtual Futures is a method developed by the Japanese "future design" movement, in which participants take on the role of "residents in 2050," etc., in order to alleviate the myopic bias of the current generation and promote sustainable and innovative consensus building. This is a mechanism. While institutionalization at the municipal and national levels is progressing, issues such as representativeness and cost have also been pointed out. Origin and Definition
In "Future Design" proposed by economist Tatsuyoshi Saijo around 2012, "virtual future persons" are introduced as a mechanism to allow future generations to participate in current decision-making as imaginary personalities. Participants will be asked to "travel back in time" and take on the role of themselves in 30 years' time, representing the interests of future generations in the discussions.
theoretical background
While markets and democracy maximize the utility of the current generation, they fail to adequately factor in the interests of future generations -- this is called the "myopia" problem.
Experiments have confirmed that inserting a virtual future person switches participants' thinking from "present mode" to "future mode" and increases their futurability to preserve resources for the future. evidence
Adding one virtual future person in the lab experiment significantly increased the adoption rate of sustainability proposals such as greenhouse gas reduction.
Even in open-air discussions, the role of the future person triggers discussion of the long-term perspective, and there is a spillover effect on the preferences of other participants.
However, some report that future person rolls involve a high cognitive load and require facilitation and repetitive training.
case
The Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) has prepared a bill to establish a "Commission for Future Generations" in 2023, which would establish a "Commission for Future Generations" in the Diet with nine experts from the private sector.
International Interest
United Nations University and foreign think tanks have introduced Future Design, including virtual future persons, as "a new long-term thinking device applicable to an aging society.
Review articles in the English-speaking world have also highlighted "Imaginary Future Generations" as a framework that can be applied to climate policy.
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